Actual data on corona virus
COVID-19 situation in the WHO European Region
source: https://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ead3c6475654481ca51c248d52ab9c61
Why not shaking hands?
The corona virus is a new virus which is not very well understood at the time of writing (March 8th 2020) which on its own is a reason to be cautious.
What we know right now:
Basic reproduction number RO in Germany: 2.4 - 3.3 source
Confirmed cases: 795 (source)
- more up to date see above map
Recommendation of Robert Koch Institut:
- Wie bei Influenza und anderen akuten Atemwegsinfektionen schützen das Einhalten von Hust- und Niesregeln, gute Händehygiene sowie Abstand zu Erkrankten (ca. 1 bis 2 Meter) auch vor einer Übertragung des neuen Coronavirus. Auch aufs Händeschütteln sollte verzichtet werden. Generell sollten Menschen, die an einer Atemwegserkrankung leiden, nach Möglichkeit zu Hause bleiben. Stand: 06.03.2020
That is for me reason enough to take the situation serious. BTW, Robert Koch Institute has has a informative fact sheet on the corona virus
Example of how the virus can spread
In the paper Phase-adjusted estimation of the number of Coronavirus Disease 2019 cases in Wuhan, China the spread of the virus for certain R0 values is given
An estimation of Corona cases for a range of R0 values is shown below
Source https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0148-0
Note, the number of new infections rises exponential, potentially will this overstrain the health system.
Lowering R0 by suitable actions is crucial as can be seen below. It is up for debate if avoiding to shake hands has a big impact, but what is not disputed is that it is an easy action to take with no effort and no negative effects
Source https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0148-0
Exponential growth and epidemics
A well made video with some math background information on what exponential growth means and how it turns to logistic growth is on available on Youtube as seen below.
Conclusion
So to avoid spreading the Corona virus I will not shake hands until a medical authority like the Robert Koch Institut of WHO will declare it to be safe.
I don’t know if this action really will have a positive impact, what I know for sure, it does not cause any harm.